Alright, the economy is completely screwed, and there is going to be pain aplenty over the next three years or more. But the need to survive an election has spoken louder than the state of the economy. Little has been done to address the deficit, little to address the needs of the low paid. Most tax changes are regressive rather than progressive, and the predicted growth of 3.5% in 2011 falls into the category of fairy tale rather than economics textbook.
Many have said that this is a pre-budget report for the 2010 election. I disagree, this is aimed at the 2014/15 election, when Labour will fancy gaining seats from a Conservative government forced to make, and take responsibility for, a gruesome combination of swingeing cuts and unpopular decisions. Ironic, given that recent polls give Labour a sniff of a chance for the first time in more than a year.
Now I tend to the view that the next election isn't sewn up by any means. The signs are that our MP's are proving to be rather more resilient than the Conservatives had hoped and, as the election looms large, the absence of meaningful policy (as opposed to pretty soundbites) is beginning to prove problematic. And that's why one wonders why Labour appear so insipid.
Most people are braced for bad news, the public sector for lousy pay rises, the self-employed and small company owners for tax rises and yet, what do we get? A freeze in corporation tax rates, a 0.5% increase in National Insurance Contributions, promises of further efficiency savings, a cut in bingo duty to show that Labour are still for, and of, the people, whatever that means.
What does it mean? Well, the Conservatives can continue their policy-free route to power, we'll continue to do all of the intellectual heavy lifting, courtesy of Vince, and Labour will continue to drift towards electoral defeat. And the unmitigated horror of a George Osborne budget gets just that little bit closer. May God have mercy on our souls...
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